Exploring the effect of climate risk on agricultural and food stock prices: Fresh evidence from EMD-Based variable-lag transfer entropy analysis

Zouhaier Dhifaoui, Rabeh Khalfaoui (), Sami Ben Jabeur () and Mohammad Zoynul Abedin
Additional contact information
Zouhaier Dhifaoui: SAMM - Statistique, Analyse et Modélisation Multidisciplinaire (SAmos-Marin Mersenne) - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
Rabeh Khalfaoui: ICN Business School, CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine
Sami Ben Jabeur: ESDES - ESDES, Lyon Business School - UCLy - UCLy - UCLy (Lyon Catholic University), UR CONFLUENCE : Sciences et Humanités (EA 1598) - UCLy - UCLy (Lyon Catholic University)
Mohammad Zoynul Abedin: Teesside University

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: Climate has traditionally played an important role in the development of countries, owing to its inherent relationship with agricultural output and pricing. This study explores one such association between the most well-known climate anomaly, the El Niño34 Southern Oscillation, and international commodity prices of agriculture and food indexes. This study addresses the potentially causal effect of El Niño34 on international agricultural and food stock prices. To do so, we develop a novel approach: the empirical mode decomposition variable-lag transfer entropy (EMD-VL transfer entropy) by combining the variable-lag transfer entropy framework and the empirical mode decomposition. The evidence reveals the following major results. First, climate shocks affect global agricultural stock prices in the short-term. Second, significant transfer entropy from El Niño34 to food index appeared at mid- and long-term business cycles. Third, unidirectional causal effect from climate shocks to agricultural and food stock prices is more intense in the short business cycle attesting to the impact of climate shocks on the food market, which is especially visible in the short-term horizon. Finally, our proposed method exceeds the traditional variable-lag transfer entropy by detecting such causal interplay at various business cycles, which is useful for investors and policymakers.

Date: 2023-01
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Published in Journal of Environmental Management, 2023, 326, pp.116789. ⟨10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116789⟩

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03998224

DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116789

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().