 Mortality of firms in France from 2000 to 2017: a longitudinal and cross-sectional demographic analysisMortalité des entreprises en France entre 2000 et 2017: une analyse démographique longitudinale et transversaleGuerschom Mugisho
Post-Print from HAL Abstract: Business failure and survival is a subject of interest to researchers from a variety of backgrounds. Demographers have shown little interest in business demography and, more specifically, business survival and failure, although demographic analysis methods are increasingly being used in this area. Due to the lack of longitudinal data over a long period of time, researchers have very often studied the survival of firms at five years and rarely at ten years after creation. Previous research has also used smaller samples than might be desirable. Therefore, it is necessary to analyse the survival of firms over a longer period, in this case 17 years, and over several different cohorts, in this case 18 cohorts. Moreover, the results of previous studies on the factors of business failure do not take into account the period effect and the specific conditions prevailing in the year of creation, hence the need for an analysis of the factors of business mortality in terms of age, period and cohort. This study aims to analyse the survival of firms 17 years after they were created and to analyse the age, period and cohort effects on firm mortality in France. We use individual open data from the Bank of France. The study is based on a sample of 391,474 companies created between 2000 and 2017. Longitudinal and cross-sectional demographic analysis allowed us to establish lifetables by regions, by cohort and by period and to derive the statistics of the firm lifespans, including mortality rates and survival probabilities. Age-period-cohort modelling from aggregate data, classified by cohort and by age, allowed us to identify age, period and cohort effects on the mortality rates of the firms. Our results indicate a survival rate of 17 % seventeen years after creation for metropolitan France. The survival rates differ by region. They are negatively correlated with the hierarchical rank position of the regions. Finally, the results of the age-period-cohort analysis indicate, on one hand, a decline in the longevity of firms and, on the other hand, lower survival probabilities for the cohorts created during the 2008 financial crisis and those that went through it at younger ages. Conclusion With information on the cohorts and on the period of observation, the Age-Period-Cohort model would predict firm mortality rates by age, and vice versa. JEL codes: R11, G33, J11 Keywords: business demography; firm survival; demographic analysis; age-period-cohort model; démographie des entreprises survie des entreprises analyse démographique modèle business demography firm survival demographic analysis age-period-cohort model Palabras clave: demografía empresarial supervivencia empresarial análisis demográfico modelo de cohorte de edad-período Codes JEL : R11 G33 J11; démographie des entreprises; survie des entreprises; analyse démographique; modèle business demography; age-period-cohort model Palabras clave: demografía empresarial; supervivencia empresarial; análisis demográfico; modelo de cohorte de edad-período Codes JEL : R11; G33; J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers) Published in Quatrième colloque international sur la défaillance d'entreprise, IAE Lille, Nov 2019, Lille, France. https://cide2019.univ-lille.fr/ Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04010442 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Post-Print from HAL |
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