A Resilient Energy System to Climate change

Manh-Hung Nguyen (manh-hung.nguyen@malix.univ-paris1.fr)
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Manh-Hung Nguyen: TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

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Abstract: Chapter 5 analyses the sensitivity of Viet Nam's energy system-including both demand and supply sides-to weather conditions, projects the potential impact of climate change and proposes adaptation strategies. Key results confirm the significant effect of fluctuations in weather factors such as precipitation and temperature on residential, commercial and industrial energy demand, and hydropower generation. One additional degree Celsius is estimated to increase household electricity consumption by 4.86 per cent and firms' energy demand by 4.31 per cent. In addition, climate change would introduce a great deal of uncertainty into hydropower generation, which currently accounts for a significant part of Viet Nam's energy production. Our projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the 2017-2050 period using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) suggest climate change would cumulatively raise electricity demand by US$ 4,227.5-7,675.3 million, and emissions by 161.9-288.3 MtCO2e. Close monitoring, early planning, and prompt response measures based on strengthened scientific and technological capability are recommended, to cope with the various impacts of climate change on the energy system.

Date: 2021-03-03
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Published in Climate change in Viet Nam, impacts and adaptation: a COP26 assessment GEMMES Viet Nam project, 2021

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