When did global warming start? A new baseline for carbon budgeting

Hachmi Ben Ameur, Xuyuan Han, Zhenya Liu and Jonathan Peillex ()
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Hachmi Ben Ameur: INSEEC - Institut des hautes études économiques et commerciales | School of Business and Economics
Zhenya Liu: CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon
Jonathan Peillex: LEFMI - Laboratoire d’Économie, Finance, Management et Innovation - UR UPJV 4286 - UPJV - Université de Picardie Jules Verne

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Abstract: The global temperatures over the period 1850–1900 are widely used by academia and policymaker as a pre-industrial baseline to assess global warming, but there remains a clear need for a statistical study. Using Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) and the Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature (HadCET) records, this study builds a stochastic disorder model to determine the pre-industrial periods for regional and global warming. We find that warming in HadCET emerged in 1866–1872 and the average HadCET has increased by 0.48 °C thereafter. Warming in BEST began in 1905–1909 and the average BEST has subsequently climbed by 0.8096 °C. The comparative analysis demonstrates that our results minimize the risk of false detection. These results will help to improve carbon budgeting and facilitate sustainable development planning.

Date: 2022-11
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Published in Economic Modelling, 2022, 116, pp.106005. ⟨10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106005⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04077724

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106005

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