Balancing economic and epidemiological interventions in the early stages of pathogen emergence

Andy Dobson, Cristiano Ricci, Raouf Boucekkine (raouf.boucekkine@univ-amu.fr), Giorgio Fabbri, Ted Loch-Temzelides and Mercedes Pascual
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Andy Dobson: Princeton University, Santa Fe Institute, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Cristiano Ricci: UniPi - University of Pisa [Italy] = Università di Pisa [Italia] = Université de Pise [Italie]
Ted Loch-Temzelides: Luiss University, Department of Economics and Finance, Roma
Mercedes Pascual: Santa Fe Institute, University of Chicago
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Ted LOCH TEMZELIDES

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Abstract: The global pandemic of Covid-19 has underlined the need for more coordinated responses to emergent pathogens. These responses need to balance epidemic control in ways that concomitantly minimize hospitalizations and economic damages. We develop a hybrid economic-epidemiological modelling framework that allows us to examine the interaction between economic and health impacts over the first period of pathogen emergence when lockdown, testing, and isolation are the only means of containing the epidemic. This operational mathematical setting allows us to determine the optimal policy interventions under a variety of scenarios that might prevail in the first period of a large scale epidemic outbreak. Combining testing with isolation emerges as a more effective policy than lockdowns, significantly reducing deaths and the number of infected hosts, at lower economic cost. If a lockdown is put in place early in the course of the epidemic, it always dominates the "laissez faire" policy of doing nothing.

Keywords: Emerging pathogen; Covid-19; Economics; Epidemiology; Lockdown; Testing; Optimization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04150117v1
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Published in Science Advances , 2023, 9 (21), pp.eade616. ⟨10.1126/sciadv.ade6169⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04150117

DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.ade6169

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