Climate adaptive response of rice yield in Vietnam: new insight through panel data modeling with heterogeneous slopes

Michel Simioni ()
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Michel Simioni: UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

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Abstract: Rice production is central to the Vietnamese economy, not only in terms of contribution to Vietnam's GDP, but also to the food security of its population. However, Vietnam is one of the countries most threatened by climate change in the coming decades, and its rice production. This paper focuses on rice yields and investigates their evolution over time and between provinces over the period 1987-2015, depending on climatic conditions. Special attention is devoted to the impact of heat stress. This impact is measured considering the potential adaptation of farmers to these extreme events. To this end, a damage function allowing for spatial and temporal heterogeneity in rice yield responses to heat exposure is estimated. Data descriptive analysis shows that the provinces with favorable conditions for rice growth are also those that face the most risk of heat stress. The main result of the estimation shows that these provinces have adapted well to heat stress conditions over the period studied, but that their effort to adapt begins to decrease when the risk of heat stress becomes too high. Taking adaptation into account then makes it possible to qualify forecasts of changes in rice yield due to climate change, which are usually made in the absence of any adaptation.

Date: 2023-07-20
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Published in CELG Seminar [College of Economics, Law and Government Seminar], University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, Jul 2023, Ho Chi MInh City, Vietnam

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04165412

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