On the Marginal Cost of the Duration of a Wildfire

Antoine Belgodere, Frédéric Allaire, Jean-Baptiste Filippi (), Vivien Mallet () and Florian Guéniot
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Frédéric Allaire: ANGE - Numerical Analysis, Geophysics and Ecology - LJLL (UMR_7598) - Laboratoire Jacques-Louis Lions - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - Centre Inria de Sorbonne Université - Centre Inria de Paris - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique
Jean-Baptiste Filippi: SPE - Laboratoire « Sciences pour l’Environnement » (UMR CNRS 6134 SPE) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Università di Corsica Pasquale Paoli [Université de Corse Pascal Paoli]
Vivien Mallet: ANGE - Numerical Analysis, Geophysics and Ecology - LJLL (UMR_7598) - Laboratoire Jacques-Louis Lions - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - Centre Inria de Sorbonne Université - Centre Inria de Paris - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique
Florian Guéniot: LISA - Laboratoire « Lieux, Identités, eSpaces, Activités » (UMR CNRS 6240 LISA) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Università di Corsica Pasquale Paoli [Université de Corse Pascal Paoli]

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Abstract: Avoiding catastrophic wildfires is a natural rationale for fighting fires in their early stage. Beside this benefit, may a marginal decrease in the duration of smaller wildfires be worthwhile? The present article addresses this topic by estimating the marginal damage of the duration of forest fires. We perform two sets of wildfire simulations in Corsica, and estimate the damage based on the type of land use in burned areas. Results suggest that the marginal cost of the duration of fires rises by a factor of 4 during the first 400 minutes. The two reasons appear to be 1- the increase in the marginal burnt area (a physical mechanism) and 2- the increase in the value of the marginal burnt area, due to the ignition points being located in low-value places (a human mechanism). Using a conservative calibration, our results corroborate the principle of early initial attack already in use in countries with sufficient fire fighting forces, but subject to debate because of its cost.

Keywords: Fire economics; Environmental policy; Risk assessment; Wildfire simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04256909v1
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Published in Journal of Forest Economics, 2023, 38 (3), pp.265-292. ⟨10.1561/112.00000565⟩

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Journal Article: On the Marginal Cost of the Duration of a Wildfire (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04256909

DOI: 10.1561/112.00000565

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