The sectoral trade losses from financial crises
Jean-Marc Atsebi (),
Jean-Louis Combes and
Alexandru Minea
Additional contact information
Jean-Marc Atsebi: FMI - Fonds Monétaire International - FMI
Post-Print from HAL
Abstract:
Abstract The "Great Trade Collapse" triggered by the 2008-2009 crisis calls for a careful assessment of the trade losses from financial crises. We adopt a more detailed perspective by looking at the response of different types of trade (i.e. consumption, intermediate, capital goods, and business services) following various types of financial crises (i.e. debt, banking, and currency crises) in 41 emerging markets. Estimations performed in the 1980-2019 period using a combination of impact assessment and local projections to capture a causal dynamic effect running from financial crises to the trade activity show that the collapse of total trade is long-lasting and mainly driven by the fall of intermediate goods and to some extent capital goods, while trade in consumption goods and business services is more resilient to crises. Therefore, financial crises could lead to considerable disruption of global value chains, as observed during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and easily spill over from one country to another through trade linkages. The examination of heterogeneity reveals that total and sectoral trade is more severely impacted in countries with a lower share of manufacturing exports, less diversified exported products, and trading partners, with lower demand from trading partners and when associated with a deterioration of the domestic and external financial conditions and sudden stops. By contributing to the understanding of the trade effects of financial crises, our analysis provides insightful support for the design and implementation of policies aimed at coping with these effects.
Keywords: Trade Losses; Financial Crises; Impact Assessment; Local Projections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-12-12
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04459024v1
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:
Published in Industrial and Corporate Change, 2023, ⟨10.1093/icc/dtad078⟩
Downloads: (external link)
https://hal.science/hal-04459024v1/document (application/pdf)
Related works:
Journal Article: The sectoral trade losses from financial crises (2024) 
Working Paper: The Sectoral Trade Losses from Financial Crises (2021) 
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04459024
DOI: 10.1093/icc/dtad078
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().