Employment Implications of Transitioning to Net Zero: Revealing Transition Risks through Downscaling

Augustin Danneaux, Thomas Le Gallic () and Julien Lefèvre ()
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Augustin Danneaux: CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LISIS - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Sciences, Innovations, Sociétés - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Université Gustave Eiffel
Thomas Le Gallic: CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, SMASH - Société de Mathématiques Appliquées et de Sciences Humaines
Julien Lefèvre: CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: The rapid phase-out of fossil fuels required to meet the ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement raises concerns about sectoral decline and socioeconomic impacts. This study addresses the need to refine the assessment of employment impacts associated in transition scenarios. We investigate two climate change mitigation scenarios and a baseline using an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) and augment the overall analysis by incorporating a data science approach. We thus developped an enhanced coal nexus within the Imaclim-R framework and a sub-national economies dynamics module. The latter enables the results to be scaled down and provide qualitatively new information. The analysis quantifies job losses and their timing, highlighting regional disparities and vulnerability. The findings underscore the importance of integrating support policies for affected employees into carbon neutrality programs. Anticipation and rapid implementation of such policies are crucial. Understanding transition risks and developing appropriate support policies can enhance the feasibility and acceptance of transition pathways.

Date: 2023-10-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
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Published in European Climate and Energy Modelling Platform 2023 (ECEMP), Oct 2023, Online, France

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04477711

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