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Securitization bubbles: Structured finance with disagreement about default risk

Tobias Broer
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Tobias Broer: Stockholm University, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research

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Abstract: An additional reason for the structured finance boom of the 2000s may have been disagreement about default risk of collateral assets. When risk-neutral investors disagree about average default probabilities, structuring collateral cash flow raises prices by concentrating optimists' demand on risky tranches. With disagreement about default correlation, low-correlation investors believe in diversification and pay high prices for senior tranches they deem riskless. High-correlation investors value junior tranches they expect to pay whenever aggregate conditions are good. Risk aversion and short selling through credit default swaps reduce the prices of both pass-through and structured securitizations but may increase the return to tranching.

Date: 2018-03
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Published in Journal of Financial Economics, 2018, 127 (3), pp.505-518. ⟨10.1016/j.jfineco.2017.12.001⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04489676

DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2017.12.001

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