Consumer sentiment and government confidence: Is there a stable causal relationship?

Véronique Flambard and Nicolas Vaillant

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Abstract: Consumer confidence and perceived political confidence are known to play independently a crucial role in the economic growth of a country. Using French monthly economic and political data, we analyse the relationships between the president, the prime minister and consumer confidence during cohabitation and non-cohabitation periods, based on a SUR (seemingly unrelated regression) model. During cohabitation periods, whenever the president's confidence index increased the prime minister index decreased. Further, confidence in the prime minister was useful for predicting consumer confidence. During non-cohabitation periods, consumer confidence helps to forecast both the president's confidence and the prime minister's confidence.

Keywords: Consumer confidence; Political confidence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-12-30
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Published in French Politics, 2014, 12 (4), pp.310-330. ⟨10.1057/fp.2014.22⟩

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Working Paper: Consumer sentiment and government confidence: Is there a stable causal relationship? (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04511146

DOI: 10.1057/fp.2014.22

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