An assessment of the distributional impacts of autonomous adaptation to climate change from European agriculture

Évaluation des effets distributifs de l'adaptation autonome de l'agriculture européenne au changement climatique

Maxime Ollier, Pierre-Alain Jayet and Pierre Humblot
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Maxime Ollier: Institute of Natural Resource Sciences - ZHAW - Zurich University of Applied Sciences, UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CEC - Chaire Economie du Climat - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres
Pierre Humblot: UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

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Abstract: Farmers facing a durable change in climate conditions may autonomously adapt through the intensive margin, the extensive margin, or through the adoption of new practices. Based on a coupling between a microeconomic model of European agriculture (AROPAj) and a crop model (STICS), this article investigates the potential distributional impacts of farm-level autonomous adaptation to climate change within the European Union (EU-27). Considering the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 of the second report on emission scenario of the fifth assessment report (SRES AR5), we implement two levels of autonomous adaptation for farmers, and three time horizons. The results indicate that ceteris paribus, climate change may lead in terms of social welfare to a slightly worse situation in the middle term and a slightly better situation in the long term with respect to the present. However, the ranking of agents in the distribution is importantly impacted. Our Shapley inequality decomposition shows that income inequality is largely explained by the region and type of farming. Climate change barely affects the marginal contribution of these two characteristics to overall income

Keywords: Income inequality; Inequality decomposition; Autonomous adaptation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Published in Ecological Economics, 2024, 222, pp.108221. ⟨10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108221⟩

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Journal Article: An assessment of the distributional impacts of autonomous adaptation to climate change from European agriculture (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04572256

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108221

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