Food diets and land-use change at a global scale: the key role of modelling frameworks

Chantal Le Mouël, Patrice Dumas () and Agneta Forslund ()
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Patrice Dumas: CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement
Agneta Forslund: SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

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Abstract: In this study, we advocate for more transparency when reporting simulation results obtained from several different models but with the same scenarios. We argue that focusing on average or median values contributes to hiding the fragility and uncertainty of simulation results. Meanwhile, pointing out the main mechanisms at stake in the various models and emphasizing the extent to which these mechanisms explain the divergence in results would likely help to a better understanding and interpretation of results and contribute to clarify the scientific debates. For that purpose, we focus on the land-use change impacts of food diet change. Our objective is to show how and to what extent the modelling framework may affect results. More specifically, we are interested in pointing out the main mechanisms in various models, which are responsible for most observed divergences in results. Thus, we simulate four contrasted diets with three models based on contrasting modelling frameworks.

Keywords: Modeling; Models' results intercomparison; Food diets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-06-01
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Published in Sustainable food systems for food security. Need for combination of local and global approaches, Quae, pp.71-82, 2022

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04626816

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