A Framework for Joint Verification and Evaluation of Seasonal Climate Services across Socioeconomic Sectors

Louise Crochemore (), Stefano Materia, Elisa Delpiazzo, Stefano Bagli, Andrea Borrelli, Francesco Bosello, Eva Contreras, Francesco Dalla Valle, Silvio Gualdi, Javier Herrero, Francesca Larosa, Rafael Lopez, Valerio Luzzi, Paolo Mazzoli, Andrea Montani, Isabel Moreno, Valentina Pavan, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Fausto Tomei, Giulia Villani, Christiana Photiadou, María José Polo and Jaroslav Mysiak
Additional contact information
Louise Crochemore: SMHI - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, IGE - Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Fédération OSUG - Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes
Stefano Materia: CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna]
Elisa Delpiazzo: CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Université de Venise Ca’ Foscari | Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia
Stefano Bagli: GECOsistema Srl
Andrea Borrelli: CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna]
Francesco Bosello: CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Université de Venise Ca’ Foscari | Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia
Eva Contreras: Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba]
Francesco Dalla Valle: ENEL GREEN POWER
Silvio Gualdi: CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna]
Javier Herrero: EMBL-EBI - European Bioinformatics Institute [Hinxton] - EMBL Heidelberg
Rafael Lopez: Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba]
Valerio Luzzi: GECOsistema Srl
Paolo Mazzoli: GECOsistema Srl
Andrea Montani: Arpae - Hydro-Meteo-Climate Service of the Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna, ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Isabel Moreno: Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba]
Valentina Pavan: Arpae - Hydro-Meteo-Climate Service of the Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna
Ilias Pechlivanidis: SMHI - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
Fausto Tomei: Hydro-Meteo and Climate Service - ARPA-ER, Arpae - Hydro-Meteo-Climate Service of the Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna
Giulia Villani: Arpae - Hydro-Meteo-Climate Service of the Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna
Christiana Photiadou: EEA - European Environment Agency
María José Polo: Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba]
Jaroslav Mysiak: CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Université de Venise Ca’ Foscari | Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia

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Abstract: Assessing the information provided by coproduced climate services is a timely challenge, given the continuously evolving scientific knowledge and its increasing translation to address societal needs. Here, we propose a joint evaluation and verification framework to assess prototype services that provide seasonal forecast information based on the experience from the Horizon 2020 (H2020) Climate forecasts enabled knowledge services (CLARA) project. The quality and value of the forecasts generated by CLARA services were first assessed for five climate services utilizing the Copernicus Climate Change Service seasonal forecasts and responding to knowledge needs from the water resources management, agriculture, and energy production sectors. This joint forecast verification and service evaluation highlights various skills and values across physical variables, services, and sectors, as well as a need to bridge the gap between verification and user-oriented evaluation. We provide lessons learned based on the service developers' and users' experience and recommendations to consortia that may want to deploy such verification and evaluation exercises. Last, we formalize a framework for joint verification and evaluation in service development, following a transdisciplinary (from data purveyors to service users) and interdisciplinary chain (climate, hydrology, economics, and decision analysis).

Keywords: Forecast; verification/skill; Seasonal; forecasting; Climate services; Economic value (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-07
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04670920v1
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Published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2024, 105 (7), pp.E1218-E1236. ⟨10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0026.1⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04670920

DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0026.1

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