On the (de)stabilization role of protectionism

Nastasia Henry and Alain Venditti
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Nastasia Henry: AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: To what extent protectionism affects growth and (de)stabilizes the economies? Although the impact of protectionism on growth has been widely explored without reaching a consensus, few has been said on its impact on macroeconomic stability. The present paper attempts to gauge more precisely its implications using a Barro-type (Barro, 1990) endogenous growth model with public debt and credit constraint where tariffs are a proxy of protectionism. Our main result is to show that when the debt level is high, and the share of foreign goods in total consumption is large enough, increasing tariffs may have a destabilizing effect generating some expectation coordination failures between multiple equilibria. We also exhibit some trade-off between tariffs and growth as tariffs are beneficial only to the low growth equilibrium which may only appear when the international interest rate is low enough. Finally, focusing on the local stability property, we show that the high BGP is always characterized by local indeterminacy, while the low BGP is always a saddle point. We then prove that tariffs may be responsible for the existence of large self-fulfilling fluctuations.

Keywords: Public debt; tariffs; small open economy; credit constraint; global and local indeterminacy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Published in Journal of Mathematical Economics, 2024, 113, pp.102993. ⟨10.1016/j.jmateco.2024.102993⟩

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Journal Article: On the (de)stabilization role of protectionism (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04676406

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmateco.2024.102993

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