La décroissance impliquerait-elle vraiment le retour à l’âge de la bougie ? Un exercice simple de quantification

Marc Germain ()
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Marc Germain: LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: Based on a Kaya identity decomposing the ecological footprint as a function of ecological intensity, GDP/capita and population, the aim of the article is to calculate a country's sustainable GDP/capita, i.e. the maximum GDP/capita level compatible with the absence of ecological overshoot. For France and Germany (resp. for Belgium), the sustainable GDP/cap corresponds to the levels of GDP/cap observed during the 1st half of the 1960s (resp. 1950), i.e. a division by 3 (resp. by almost 4) compared to the current GDP/cap. The results show that the reduction in GDP/capita required to eliminate ecological overshoot would in no way imply a return to the candle age. Nor would it involve a pure and simple return to the 1950s or 1960s, given that the neutralization of overshoot is achieved via a reduction in GDP/capita alone, without giving up current technology and population. In view of the literature on the links between growth and well-being, it is also likely that the decline in GDP/capita would not be accompanied by a loss of well-being of the same magnitude (assuming there is a loss).

Keywords: Degrowth; Kaya identity; Ecological footprint; Décroissance; Identité de Kaya; Empreinte écologique (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env and nep-hme
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Published in 2024

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