Dynamic of the Disablement Process in Ageing Populations

Mahdi Ben Jelloul, Antoine Bozio, Elsa Perdrix, Audrey Rain and Lea Toulemon
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Mahdi Ben Jelloul: IPP - Institut des politiques publiques
Elsa Perdrix: Legos - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion des Organisations de Santé - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Audrey Rain: CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper aims at projecting the disabled population aged 60 or more, and at identifying the factors that impact those projections. To this aim, we develop a novel methodological approach which allows identifying the role of different parameters (e.g. a change in the probability to remain autonomous, a change in the distribution of survival gains across disability levels) in the forecast of morbidity. This paper focuses on the methodological aspect of this new method. It also provides, as an illustration, a projection of the French elderly disabled population in 2060, relying on the French CARE‑M data and on the European data SHARE. It shows, among other results, that matching the past evolution of the disability‑free life expectancy ratio to the total life expectancy requires optimistic assumptions regarding the evolution of the probability to remain autonomous.

Keywords: Microsimulation; ageing; elderly disability; long‑term care (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-05
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Published in Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, 2023, 538, pp.13-30. ⟨10.24187/ecostat.2023.538.2090⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: Dynamic of the Disablement Process in Ageing Populations (2023)
Working Paper: Dynamic of the Disablement Process in Ageing Populations (2023)
Working Paper: Dynamic of the Disablement Process in Ageing Populations (2023)
Working Paper: Dynamic of the Disablement Process in Ageing Populations (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04748146

DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2023.538.2090

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