Sub-regional variability of residential electricity consumption under climate change and air-conditioning scenarios in France

Variabilité sous-régionale de la consommation électrique résidentielle sous scénarios de changement climatique et de climatisation en France

Qiqi Tao (), Marie Naveau, Alexis Tantet, Jordi Badosa and Philippe Drobinski ()
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Qiqi Tao: LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département des Géosciences - ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres
Marie Naveau: LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département des Géosciences - ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres
Alexis Tantet: LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département des Géosciences - ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres
Jordi Badosa: LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département des Géosciences - ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres
Philippe Drobinski: LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département des Géosciences - ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres

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Abstract: The residential sector is important for the energy transition to combat global warming. Due to the geographical variability of socio-economic factors, the highly dependent residential electricity consumption (REC) should be studied locally. This study aims to project future French REC considering climate change and air-conditioning (AC) scenarios and to quantify its spatial variability. For this purpose, a linear temperature sensitivity model fitted by annual observed electricity consumption data and historical temperature is applied at an intra-regional scale. Future temperature-sensitive REC is computed by applying the model to temperature projections under the climate change pathway RCP8.5. Three AC scenarios are considered: (1) A 100% AC rate scenario assuming that any region partially equipped with AC systems nowadays will have all its households equipped with AC, but local temperature sensitivity will no longer progress; (2) A gradual spreading scenario mimicking "do like my neighbor" behavior; (3) A combination of the two scenarios. Increasing temperatures lead to an overall REC decrease (−8 TWh by 2040 and down to −20 TWh by 2100) with significant spatial variability, which had never been quantified and mapped due to a lack of suited methodology and limited available data at the finest scale. The evolution of REC is modulated by the evolution of cooling needs and the deployment of AC systems to meet those needs. In the first 2 AC scenarios, the decrease of REC due to climate change could be totally offset in the South of France, which would then display an increase in REC. When the 2 AC scenarios are combined, an increase in REC could be seen over the whole country. The most extreme AC scenario shows a potential REC rise due to AC usage by 2% by 2040 and even 32% by 2100, which could be canceled by increasing the cooling setpoint up to 26–27 °C

Keywords: Residential electricity consumption; Cooling demand; Climate change impacts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04799294v1
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Published in Climate services, 2024, 33, pp.100426. ⟨10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100426⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04799294

DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100426

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