Measuring Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: An Equilibrium Perspective on Supply-Side Approaches

Mesurer les impacts du changement climatique sur l'agriculture: Une perspective d'équilibre sur les approches axées sur l'offre

Christophe Gouel ()
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Christophe Gouel: CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

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Abstract: Climate change impacts on agriculture are mostly estimated by supply-side reduced-form regressions, under the implicit assumption of constant crop prices. To test whether this assumption is innocuous, I use a quantitative trade model of global agricultural markets to emulate the findings of a supply-side approach and to calculate welfare changes accounting for price changes. The results show that both welfare measures are weakly correlated and can be of opposite signs, and that the supply-side approach tends to underestimate the cost of climate change because of the imperfect substitutability of crops in demand.

Keywords: adaptation; agriculture; climate change; international trade; land use; Ricardian analysis; changement climatique; commerce international; usage des sols (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-01-01
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04829202v1
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Published in Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 2025, 12 (1), pp.181-220. ⟨10.1086/730591⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04829202

DOI: 10.1086/730591

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