Greening aviation with sustainable aviation fuels: Insights from decarbonization scenarios

Paul Bardon (), Olivier Massol () and Arthur Thomas
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Paul Bardon: IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School
Olivier Massol: LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay, Department of Economics [University of London] - UCL - University College of London [London]
Arthur Thomas: LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: Recent studies outline markedly different possible decarbonization pathways for civil aviation by 2050. This paper examines how the key assumptions retained in these scenarios (i.e., the posited deployment of sustainable aviation fuels [SAFs], the projected demand trajectory, and the availability of electric and hydrogen-fueled solutions) affect the sector's future emissions of greenhouse gas. Data for 67 recent scenarios from industry-related, academic, institutional, and think tanks/NGO sources are used to perform the analysis. The results shed light on the shared properties of these scenarios. First, we find a clear consensus on the negative impact of SAFs on residual GHG emissions by 2050, conditioning to a high level of SAF penetration. Second, these scenarios posit a smaller decarbonizing power of biomass-based SAF than that of e-fuel. Third, we find signs of authorship bias in some scenarios. This last finding, therefore, raises concerns about the direct use of these scenarios in policymaking.

Keywords: Aviation; Environmental impacts; Pathways to net-zero emissions; Decarbonization; Sustainable aviation fuels; Scenarios; Meta-analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-02
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04874217v1
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Published in Journal of Environmental Management, 2025, 374, pp.123943. ⟨10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123943⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04874217

DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123943

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