How resilient was trade to COVID-19?

Maria Bas (), Caroline Paunov and Ana Fernandes ()
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Maria Bas: CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Ana Fernandes: World Bank Group

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Abstract: We provide stylized facts on the short-run resilience of exports to the COVID-19 pandemic across product characteristics. Relying on global monthly product-level exports to the United States, Japan, and the 27 European Union countries from January 2018 to December 2021, we show that products with a higher reliance on China or few countries as input suppliers saw stronger declines in exports as a result of the COVID-19 shock while those with more automated production processes saw exports increase. Our analysis also shows that product characteristics played different roles mediating export responses at different stages of the 2020–2021 COVID-19 crisis. We document rapid reductions in vulnerabilities for exports of unskilled-intensive production. Reliance on diversified inputs from abroad progressively contributed to resilience following an initial negative role when trade was severely disrupted globally.

Date: 2024-07
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Published in Economics Letters, 2024, 240, ⟨10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111080⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: How resilient was trade to COVID-19? (2024)
Working Paper: How resilient was trade to COVID-19? (2024)
Working Paper: How Resilient Was Trade to Covid-19? (2022)
Working Paper: How Resilient Was Trade to COVID-19 ? (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04910158

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111080

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