Politics in the facebook era. Evidence from the 2016 US presidential elections

Federica Liberini (), Michela Redoano, Antonio Russo, Angel Cuevas Rumin () and Rubén Cuevas
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Federica Liberini: QMUL - Queen Mary University of London
Michela Redoano: University of Warwick [Coventry], CESifo - Center for Economic Studies - Ifo Institute - CESifo GmbH
Antonio Russo: IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], CESifo - Center for Economic Studies - Ifo Institute - CESifo GmbH
Angel Cuevas Rumin: UC3M - Universidad Carlos III de Madrid [Madrid]
Rubén Cuevas: UC3M - Universidad Carlos III de Madrid [Madrid]

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Abstract: Social media allow political campaigns to reach specific groups of voters with unprecedented precision, yet the effect on voting behaviour of this political micro-targeting is still uncertain. To identify this effect we match survey data with a novel indicator of Facebook political ads intensity, based on audience-specific ad prices and collected during the 2016 US presidential campaign. We find that being exposed to Facebook micro-targeted ads reduced the likelihood of persuading Democrat respondents to cast the ballot in favour of the Democrat candidate and, on the other hand, it increased the likelihood of persuading Republicans and residents of traditionally red or swing states to switch their vote in favour of Mr Trump. A counterfactual analysis exercise exploring the effect on voter mobilisation and persuasion of varying the intensity of political campaigning on Facebook confirms that Trump was the primary beneficiary of micro-targeted ad campaigns on Facebook.

Keywords: Social Media; Political Micro-targeting; Elections; Advertising; Polarization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-04
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Published in European Journal of Political Economy, 2025, 87, pp.102641. ⟨10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102641⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04910761

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102641

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