Chinese deterrence: sowing military uncertainty and strengthening political certainty

La dissuasion chinoise: semer l'incertitude militaire et renforcer la certitude politiqueA

Philippe Jourdan () and Jean-Claude Pacitto ()
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Philippe Jourdan: IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel, IAE Paris Est Créteil - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Paris Est Créteil - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12
Jean-Claude Pacitto: IUT-UPEC - IUT Creteil-Vitry - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12, IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel

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Abstract: Chinese deterrence relies on two main pillars: sowing military uncertainty and strengthening political certainty.Amid growing tensions with the United States over Taiwan and the South China Sea, China is bolstering its military capabilities, raising concerns among neighboring and Western nations. Experts believe that a Sino-American conflict is likely, though not inevitable. Under Xi Jinping, China has reaffirmed its determination to reunify with Taiwan, not ruling out the use of military force. China's strategy combines transparency regarding certain military capabilities with secrecy around others, making it difficult to accurately assess its power. This strategic ambiguity aims to deter any foreign intervention in the event of a conflict. China's military buildup, particularly its naval expansion, and its ambition to compete technologically with the United States exacerbate American concerns and highlight a major shift in the global balance of power.

Keywords: dissuasion incertitude militaire certitude politique Taïwan Tensions sino-américaines capacité militaire stratégie chinoise réunification ambiguïté stratégique puissance navale Deterrence military uncertainty political certainty Taiwan Sino-American tensions military capability Chinese strategy reunification strategic ambiguity naval power; dissuasion; incertitude militaire; certitude politique; Taïwan; Tensions sino-américaines; capacité militaire; stratégie chinoise; réunification; ambiguïté stratégique; puissance navale Deterrence; military uncertainty; political certainty; Taiwan; Sino-American tensions; military capability; Chinese strategy; reunification; strategic ambiguity; naval power (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-07
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04915534v1
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Published in Conflits. Revue de Géopolitique, 2024, Cahiers de Conflits, 7 (3), pp.45-66

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