Investigating the ‘Bolsonaro effect’ on the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic: An empirical analysis of observational data in Brazil

Mireille Razafindrakoto, François Roubaud, Marta Castilho (), Valeria Pero and João Saboia
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Mireille Razafindrakoto: LEDA-DIAL - Développement, Institutions et Modialisation - LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
François Roubaud: LEDA-DIAL - Développement, Institutions et Modialisation - LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Valeria Pero: UFRJ - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro [Brasil] = Federal University of Rio de Janeiro [Brazil] = Université fédérale de Rio de Janeiro [Brésil]
João Saboia: UFRJ - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro [Brasil] = Federal University of Rio de Janeiro [Brazil] = Université fédérale de Rio de Janeiro [Brésil]

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Abstract: Brazil counts among the countries the hardest hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. A great deal has been said about the negative role played by President Bolsonaro's denialism, but relatively few studies have attempted to measure precisely what impact it actually had on the pandemic. Our paper conducts econometric estimates based on observational data at municipal level to quantitatively assess the ‘Bolsonaro effect' over time from March 2020 to December 2022. To our knowledge, this paper presents the most comprehensive investigation of Bolsonaro's influence in the spread of the pandemic from two angles: considering Covid-19 mortality and two key transmission mitigation channels (social distancing and vaccination); and exploring the full pandemic cycle (2020–2022) and its dynamics over time. Controlling for a rich set of relevant variables, our results find a strong and persistent ‘Bolsonaro effect' on the death rate: municipalities that were more pro-Bolsonaro recorded significantly more fatalities. Furthermore, evidence suggests that the president's attitude and decisions negatively influenced the population's behaviour. Firstly, pro-Bolsonaro municipalities presented a lower level of compliance with social distancing measures. Secondly, vaccination was relatively less widespread in places more in favour of the former president. Finally, our analysis points to longer-lasting and damaging repercussions. Regression results are consistent with the hypothesis that the ‘Bolsonaro effect' impacted not only on Covid-19 vaccination, but has affected vaccination campaigns in general thereby jeopardizing the historical success of the National Immunization Program in Brazil.

Keywords: Vaccination and immunization; Death rates; COVID 19; Pandemics; Brazil; Governments; Elections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pol
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Published in PLoS ONE, 2024, 19 (4), pp.e0288894. ⟨10.1371/journal.pone.0288894⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04929384

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288894

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