Sustainability of the public debt of WAEMU member states in an approach based on repayment capacity: The case of Senegal

Babo Amadou Ba
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Babo Amadou Ba: ESITEC, Groupe Supdeco Dakar

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Abstract: In this article we have carried out a study on the level of debt sustainability of Senegal using an implementation of 'stress-test' within the framework of the analysis of the sustainability of the debt (DSA). Empirically, we performed a simulation on three macroeconomic scenarios using the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model. From the reference scenarios, we carried out a stress test by simulating an increase in the interest rate of the debt by 2%, an increase in the dollar exchange rate by 30%, and finally an increase in the annual maturity up to at 15%. The results of the stress test showed that Senegal's debt is at a high level of risk, but not in debt distress. Senegal has no payment difficulties. This allows us to say that Senegal's debt is sustainable. This result shows that efforts have been made in the macroeconomic framework imposed by the IMF at the level of the variables of the debt sustainability framework (DSF), specifically the balance of payments, the public sector, debt and GDP

Keywords: Debt; DSF; Liquidity; Risk; Stress test; Solvency; VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-06-10
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04968722v1
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Published in The International Journal of Business Management and Technology, 2022

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04968722

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