Carbon dioxide emissions and environmental risks: Long term and short term

Sabri Boubaker, Zhenya Liu, Yuhao Mu and Yaosong Zhan
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Sabri Boubaker: Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School
Zhenya Liu: Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School
Yuhao Mu: Renming University of China
Yaosong Zhan: NSYSU - National Sun Yat-sen University

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Abstract: The world is currently experiencing the environmental challenge of global warming, necessitating careful planning of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions to deal with this problem. This study examines the environmental challenge posed by CO 2 emissions from both a long and short‐term perspective. In the long term, despite efforts made by countries, our change‐point detection analysis shows that there has been no structural change in CO 2 emissions since 1950. Without significant efforts, the carbon budget corresponding to the Paris Agreement's target will be exhausted by 2046. To achieve this target, a significant reduction in global CO 2 emissions of 3.22% per year is necessary. In the short term, COVID‐19 is thought to have relieved pressure on CO 2 emissions. However, this study shows that CO 2 emissions quickly returned to normal levels after a brief downturn, and we provide information on the order of CO 2 emissions recovery for different sectors.

Keywords: Change-point detection; COVID-19; Global warming; Paris Agreement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-02-20
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Published in Risk Analysis, 2024, ⟨10.1111/risa.14281⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04975799

DOI: 10.1111/risa.14281

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