From Complexity to Clarity: Eden3's Novel Perspective on Limits to Growth

Capucine Pierrel (), Adrien Nguyen-Huu () and Cédric Gaucherel ()
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Capucine Pierrel: UMR AMAP - Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier
Adrien Nguyen-Huu: CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier
Cédric Gaucherel: UMR AMAP - Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier

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Abstract: Fifty years after the publication of Limits to Growth (LtG), its scenarios predicting global socio-economic collapse are still relevant. In this study, we extracted key components and processes from the LtG narratives to construct a simple qualitative model based on solely 13 variables and 40 qualitative rules. Our modeling framework enables the computation of all possible system trajectories (scenarios) within a single output once the model is accepted. By retracing all scenarios presented in LtG, our model uncovered highly interconnected trajectories leading to either sustainability or collapse. Through this work, we demonstrate that the co-authors of LtG successfully tackled the challenge of exhaustively representing all conceivable trajectories for the global system based on their core assumptions. Furthermore, our study paves the way for exploring alternative scenarios by applying this comprehensive, yet straightforward framework to newly acquired knowledge.

Keywords: Earth system; World3; prospective scenario; structural analysis; discrete-event; limits to growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-03
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-05023744v1
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Published in Futures, inPress, pp.103597. ⟨10.1016/j.futures.2025.103597⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05023744

DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103597

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