Covid-19 and inflation targeting in the Alliance of Sahel States: ARDL approach

Abdelkader Aguir ()
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Abdelkader Aguir: ESPI - Ecole Supérieure des Professions Immobilières, MOFID-Université de Sousse

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Abstract: This article aims to identify the determinants of inflation trends in the ASS (Alliance of Sahel States) zone using the ARDL model, over the period 2019M1-2023M12. The main results of our analyses show that: (1) there is a shortterm relationship between the explanatory variable and the explained variables. In fact, reading the adjustment coefficient of this information means that, when inflation is far from its short-term equilibrium and to reach long-term equilibrium, its annual speed of adjustment is 14.7%; (2). The results of the bounds cointegration test confirm the existence of a cointegrating relationship between the model's explanatory variables, thereby, confirming the long-term relationship between the series of study variables; (3) the long-term relationship between inflation and the money supply shows that a 1% increase in money supply generates a 0.60% increase in inflation. Therefore, the Covid-19 has a significant impact on inflation and economic activity in the long term in the ASS zone.

Date: 2025-03-30
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Published in Economics Bulletin, 2025

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