PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, GOVERNANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS APPLIED TO THE CASE OF THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

DEPENSES PUBLIQUES, GOUVERNANCE ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE: UNE ANALYSE EMPIRIQUE APPLIQUEE AU CAS DE LA REPUBLIQUE DEMOCRATIQUE DU CONGO

Ally Manengu ()
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Ally Manengu: UNIKIN - Département des Sciences économiques, Université de Kinshasa

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Abstract: This study contributes to the debate on the influence of institutional variables on macroeconomic variables. Theoretical and empirical studies show that the relationship between these variables is still controversial. The aim of this work is to empirically verify the direct and interactive effects of public spending and governance on economic growth in the DRC over a period from 1980 to 2023. To do this, we used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The main findings are as follows: i) public spending negatively affects economic growth in the short term; a 1% increase in public spending reduces economic growth by 0. 0005%, and in the long term, their effect is positive and statistically significant; ii) in the short term, governance has a positive and statistically significant effect on growth, but in the long term this effect is negative and insignificant; iii) the interaction effect between public spending and poor governance is negative and statistically significant, both in the short term and in the long term, resulting in a contraction of economic activity. Hence the need to maintain good governance.

Keywords: O47; O49 Public expenditure; governance; economic growth; Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL); Dépenses publiques gouvernance Croissance économique Modèle Autorégressif à retard échelonné (ARDL) RDC C32 K0 E12 O47 O49 Public expenditure governance economic growth Autoregressive Staggered Delay Model (ARDL) DRC Code-JEL : C32 K0 E12 O47 O49; Dépenses publiques; gouvernance; Croissance économique; Modèle Autorégressif à retard échelonné (ARDL); RDC C32; K0; E12; DRC Code-JEL : C32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-05-06
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Published in hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-0144606, 2025

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