The Impact of Military Spending on Armed Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa

Dépenses militaires: quel impact sur les conflits armés en Afrique subsaharienne ?

Idrissa Aladji Aya ()
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Idrissa Aladji Aya: CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne

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Abstract: This research focuses on the security challenges faced by sub-Saharan African countries. Since 2000, these countries have experienced a substantial increase in military spending, mainly due to persistent and intense armed conflicts. Conflict hampers socio-economic development and risks creating vicious circles of instability, ultimately increasing the burden on public finances. The study analyses the relationship between military spending and the intensity of armed conflict. To answer the research question, we make the following basic assumption: an increase in military spending at the margin should reduce the intensity of armed conflict, given the deterrent effect of such spending. Using a dynamic probit model, we find that military spending reduces the intensity of armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa.

Keywords: Effectiveness; Military spending; Armed conflict; Sub-saharan Africa; Efficacité; Dépenses militaires; Conflit armé; Afrique sub-Saharienne (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-01-07
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://uca.hal.science/hal-05088849v1
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Published in 2025

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