The toll of tariffs: The impact of protectionism on education and fertility in late 19th century France

Vincent Bignon and Cecilia García-Peñalosa ()
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Vincent Bignon: DGSEI DPEM - Banque de France, Direction générale des Statistiques, des Études et de l'International, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research, AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Cecilia García-Peñalosa: AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research

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Abstract: This paper asks whether macroeconomic policy can affect fertility and education by documenting a slow-down of long-term improvements in these two outcomes in the wake of a major protectionist shock that shielded low-skilled individuals from the adverse consequences of the first wave of globalisation. We build a novel dataset for 19th-century France where, following decades of rising grain imports at low prices, high tariffs on cereal were introduced in 1892, shifting relative prices in favour of agriculture and away from industry. We exploit regional data that allow us to measure differences in the intensity of the protectionist shock and find that the tariff halted the long-term increase in schooling and slowed-down the decline in fertility that were already well underway.

Keywords: Fertility; Education; Unified growth theory; Protectionism; France (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-05-30
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Published in Journal of Economic Growth, 2025, ⟨10.1007/s10887-025-09256-4⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05105035

DOI: 10.1007/s10887-025-09256-4

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