Advancing Quantitative Risk Assessment for CO₂ Geological Storage: Experience from the PilotStrategy project

Thomas Le Guénan ()
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Thomas Le Guénan: BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières

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Abstract: Effective risk management is essential for the safe and responsible deployment of CO₂ geological storage. Within the PilotSTRATEGY project, dedicated efforts are underway to move beyond traditional qualitative approaches and implement quantitative risk assessment methods across multiple prospective storage sites. This poster presents the rationale for this methodological shift, outlines the challenges encountered, and shares early insights from the ongoing work. Quantitative methods offer the potential for more transparent, reproducible, and decision-relevant risk evaluations. However, their implementation in the context of CO₂ storage presents significant hurdles, including data limitations, uncertainty quantification, and the integration of complex geological and operational models. Through this work, we aim to demonstrate that while qualitative assessments remain valuable, they are insufficient on their own for supporting high-stakes decisions about storage site development and operation. The poster will foster discussion around the practicalities of adopting quantitative risk frameworks, the types of decisions they can support, and the conditions under which they add the most value. By sharing lessons learned and open questions, we hope to contribute to a more rigorous and actionable approach to risk management in CO₂ storage.

Date: 2025-08-27
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Published in Risk Management and Monitoring Networks Combined Meeting 2025, Aug 2025, The Hague, Netherlands.

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