Economic Impacts of Initiating Vaccination at 3 Months vs. 6 Months in an Influenza Pandemic in the United States

Van Nguyen, Pascal Crepey (), B. Adam Williams (), Verna Welch, Jean Pivette, Charles Jones and Jane True ()
Additional contact information
Van Nguyen: VHN Consulting
Pascal Crepey: RSMS - Recherche sur les services et le management en santé - UR - Université de Rennes - EHESP - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ARENES - Arènes: politique, santé publique, environnement, médias - UR - Université de Rennes - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Rennes - EHESP - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
B. Adam Williams: Pfizer
Verna Welch: Pfizer
Jean Pivette: VHN Consulting
Charles Jones: Pfizer
Jane True: Pfizer

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Abstract: Background/Objectives: An influenza pandemic is likely to occur in the coming decades and will be associated with substantial healthcare and financial burdens. In this study, we evaluated the potential economic costs of different vaccination scenarios for the US population in the context of a moderate or severe influenza pandemic. Methods: Economic analysis was performed for initiation of pandemic vaccination from 3 months vs. 6 months in the US after declaration of a pandemic. We evaluated three vaccine effectiveness levels (high, moderate, low) and two pandemic severity levels (moderate and severe). Results: No vaccination would lead to total direct and indirect costs of $116 bn in a moderate pandemic and $823 bn in a severe pandemic. Initiation of vaccination at 3 months would result in cost savings versus no vaccination (excluding vaccine price) of $30–84 bn and $260–709 bn in a moderate and severe pandemic, respectively, whereas initiation of vaccination at 6 months would result in cost savings of $4–11 bn and $36–97 bn, respectively. Cost savings of $20 bn and $162 bn would occur in a moderate or severe pandemic, respectively, from use of a low effectiveness vaccine from 3 months instead of a high effectiveness vaccine from 6 months. Conclusions: Rapid initiation of vaccination would have a greater impact than increased vaccine effectiveness in reducing the economic impacts of an influenza pandemic.

Keywords: vaccine; pandemic; influenza; cost; speed (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-08-01
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05207675v1
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Published in Vaccines, 2025, 13 (8), pp.828. ⟨10.3390/vaccines13080828⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05207675

DOI: 10.3390/vaccines13080828

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