Understanding the macroeconomic and financial vulnerabilities associated with the global low-carbon transition for Colombia

Antoine Godin (), Sakir Devrim Yilmaz, Jhan Andrade Portela and Diego Alejandro Guevara
Additional contact information
Antoine Godin: AFD - Agence française de développement, ACT - Analyse des Crises et Transitions - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord
Sakir Devrim Yilmaz: AFD - Agence française de développement
Jhan Andrade Portela: National University of Colombia

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: Based on the analysis of three scenarios of oil and coal exports over the period 2023–2050, this chapter highlights the greater macroeconomic and financial fragility that the global low-carbon transition (and subsequent decline in demand for fossil fuels) may entail for the Colombian economy. The decline in fossil fuel exports will deeply affect Colombia's real and external sectors and deteriorate its fiscal and financial conditions. Ensuring a constant stream of international flows can help mitigate the negative impacts of the global transition in the long term. Still, the main driver of a recovery lies in industrial policy. Colombia will need to reduce its import dependency and diversify its exports (increasing the export base with sophisticated and higher value-added goods and services)—which will require coordinated actions between industry, finance, and the government. Implementing these policies early is a priority, since such structural transformations take time to materialise.

Keywords: Climate resilience; Sustainable development; Energy transition; Carbon neutrality; Social inclusion; Climate finance; Colombia; Développement durable; Neutralité carbone; Colombie; Transition énergétique; Inclusion sociale; Financement climatique; Résilience climatique (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-09-01
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05208165v1
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published in Antoine Godin; Sakir Devrim Yılmaz; Annabelle Moreau Santos. Modelling low-carbon transitions in Colombia: macrofinancial opportunities and risks, Agence française de développement, pp.163-188, 2024, 978-2-37902-015-5

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal.science/hal-05208165v1/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05208165

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().