Causality of geopolitical risk on food prices: Considering the Russo–Ukrainian conflict

Foued Saadaoui, Sami Ben Jabeur () and John W Godll
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Foued Saadaoui: King Abdulaziz University
Sami Ben Jabeur: UR CONFLUENCE : Sciences et Humanités (EA 1598) - UCLy - UCLy (Lyon Catholic University), ESDES - ESDES, Lyon Business School - UCLy - UCLy - UCLy (Lyon Catholic University)

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Abstract: As the Russo–Ukrainian conflict obstructs the vast wheat production of Ukraine, we investigate the relationship over crises between geopolitical risk and prices of essential food commodities. We use multiresolution analysis to identify patterns concealed by high noise levels inherent with commodity prices during crises. Our sample includes such important periods as Brexit, COVID-19, and the current Russo–Ukrainian conflict. Results evidence a one-way causal relationship, with geopolitical factors significantly affecting food prices. Scholars interested in global development, as well as policy makers and international aid organizations will be especially interested in understanding the sensitivity of food prices to geopolitical risk.

Keywords: Commodity prices; Geopolitical risk; Multiresolution causality; Food price sensitivity; Causalité multirésolution; Risque géopolitique; Prix des matières premières; Sensibilité des prix alimentaires (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-10
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Published in Finance Research Letters, 2022, 49, pp.103103. ⟨10.1016/j.frl.2022.103103⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05238303

DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103103

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