Nonlinear nexus between infectious diseases and tourism

Hela Nammouri (), Sami Ben Jabeur () and Souhir Chlibi
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Hela Nammouri: UR CONFLUENCE : Sciences et Humanités (EA 1598) - UCLy - UCLy (Lyon Catholic University), ESDES - ESDES, Lyon Business School - UCLy - UCLy - UCLy (Lyon Catholic University)
Sami Ben Jabeur: UR CONFLUENCE : Sciences et Humanités (EA 1598) - UCLy - UCLy (Lyon Catholic University), ESDES - ESDES, Lyon Business School - UCLy - UCLy - UCLy (Lyon Catholic University)

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Abstract: This study investigates the nexus between infectious diseases and tourism. We study the nonlinear relationship between the number of tourists, pandemic index, and gross domestic product in eleven European countries from January 1996 to March 2021. We propose a nonlinear cointegration approach based on a panel-switching transition model; this allows the tourism variable to switch smoothly between regimes after incorporating an endogenous change in the pandemic variable. The findings reveal a nonlinear cointegration relationship between the variables. Furthermore, a nonlinear error-correction mechanism between tourism and infectious diseases is identified, provided that the pandemic index remains below a certain threshold. These results can help professionals and researchers construct strategies to restore tourism following an epidemic.

Keywords: panel smooth threshold regression; gross domestic product; pandemic index; Nonlinear dynamics of tourism; produit intérieur brut; régression à seuil lisse en panel; indice de pandémie; Dynamique non linéaire du tourisme (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-05
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Published in Current Issues in Tourism, 2023, 27 (11), pp.1700-1716. ⟨10.1080/13683500.2023.2214723⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05249008

DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2023.2214723

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