Enhancing Disaster Evacuation Planning with Cognitive Agent-Based Models and Co-Creation

Hossein Moradi, Rouba Iskandar, Sebastian Rodriguez, Dhirendra Singh, Julie Dugdale (), Dimitrios Tzempelikos, Athanasios Sfetsos, Evangelia Bakogianni, Evrydiki Pavlidi, Josué Díaz, Margalida Ribas, Alexandre Moragues and Joan Estrany
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Hossein Moradi: RMIT Europe - Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology - Europe
Rouba Iskandar: LIG - Laboratoire d'Informatique de Grenoble - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes
Sebastian Rodriguez: RMIT University - Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University
Dhirendra Singh: CSIRO Data61 [Sydney] - CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Australia]
Julie Dugdale: Institut Informatique et Mathématiques Appliquées de Grenoble (IMAG), LIG - Laboratoire d'Informatique de Grenoble - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes
Athanasios Sfetsos: NCSR - National Center for Scientific Research "Demokritos"
Evangelia Bakogianni: NCSR - National Center for Scientific Research "Demokritos"
Evrydiki Pavlidi: NCSR - National Center for Scientific Research "Demokritos"
Margalida Ribas: UIB - Universitat de les Illes Balears = Universidad de las Islas Baleares = University of the Balearic Islands
Alexandre Moragues: UIB - Universitat de les Illes Balears = Universidad de las Islas Baleares = University of the Balearic Islands
Joan Estrany: UIB - Universitat de les Illes Balears = Universidad de las Islas Baleares = University of the Balearic Islands

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Abstract: Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly used in disaster evacuation simulation to capture system level dynamics. While ABMs are often combined with human behavior models (HBMs), few approaches integrate these with infrastructure and demographic data that are carefully modeled using local knowledge, along with hazard-specific impacts and policy settings. Even fewer embed this integration within a co-creation loop that involves local stakeholders throughout the entire development lifecycle, from conception and design to implementation, testing, and beyond. This paper introduces the methodology that we developed to address this gap by combining a structured cocreation process with technical simulation development. The co-creation process engages local stakeholders, planners, and experts to iteratively shape evacuation scenarios, define assumptions, and validate outcomes, ensuring the model aligns with local realities. These inputs are translated into a multi-dimensional simulation framework built in MATSim, integrating network and infrastructure models, hazard effects, population, and behavior modeling enhanced through Belief-Desire-Intention cognitive architectures. We applied this methodology in different case study areas, demonstrating its capacity to simulate heterogeneous evacuation dynamics and provide diverse performance metrics. Finally, we explore how this methodology can be applied in other hazards, geographic regions, and evacuation scenarios, offering pathways for broader application and future development.

Keywords: Disaster Preparedness; Disaster Evacuation Simulation; Co-creation Processes; Human Behavior Models; Agent-Based Models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-neu and nep-tre
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Published in European Journal of Sustainable Development, 2025, 14 (3), pp.1-11. ⟨10.14207/ejsd.2025.v14n3p1⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05267465

DOI: 10.14207/ejsd.2025.v14n3p1

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