Economic resilience governance and adaptation capacities to external shocks: building a composite index for North African economies and South Africa

Gouvernance de la résilience économique et capacités d’adaptation face aux chocs externes: construction d’un indice composite pour les économies Nord-Africaines et l’Afrique du Sud

Kamal Chakir ()
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Kamal Chakir: Université Ibn Zohr = Ibn Zohr University [Agadir]

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Abstract: This study constructs a multidimensional Economic Resilience Index (ERI) to comparatively assess the capacity of five African economies (Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria and South Africa) to absorb, adapt, and transform in response to external and internal shocks over the 2005-2024 period. The research addresses a critical gap in existing literature by developing a composite index specifically calibrated for African developing economies, moving beyond generic indices that fail to capture the structural and institutional specificities of the regional context. The theoretical framework builds on evolutionary resilience theory, emphasizing economies' capacity to transform and strengthen their adaptive capabilities long-term rather than simply returning to pre-shock equilibrium. The ERI aggregates three fundamental dimensions: macroeconomic stability (measured by inflation rates, fiscal deficits, public debt ratios, and exchange rate volatility); institutional governance (incorporating government effectiveness, rule of law, corruption control, and political stability using World Bank's Worldwide Governance Indicators); and structural adaptive capacities (proxied by export diversification indices, innovation investment ratios, human capital development, infrastructure quality, and financial inclusion metrics). Methodologically, the study employs a rigorous approach combining bibliometric analysis and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The bibliometric analysis of 312 scientific articles from Scopus and Web of Science databases, spanning 2000-2025, identifies 21 key variables categorized into three thematic groups. Following PRISMA protocol guidelines, the systematic review reveals an evolution in research themes from macroeconomic stability focus (2000- 2010) to broader adaptability considerations including R&D expenditure and education access (2010-2020), and recent emphasis on climate resilience and renewable energy preparedness (2020-2025). Data compilation draws from internationally recognized sources. The construction process involves Z-score normalization to address outlier sensitivity, sub-index calculation through arithmetic means, and final aggregation using PCA-derived weights to avoid arbitrary equal weighting assumptions. Results empirically demonstrate that governance quality and adaptive capacities constitute primary determinants of resilience gaps, surpassing macroeconomic stability importance in medium-term horizons. This hierarchy becomes particularly evident during systemic shocks: the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, Arab Spring (2010-2012), oil price collapse (2014-2016), and COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021). Countries investing in institutional reforms and adaptive capacity development (Morocco, South Africa) demonstrate superior shock absorption and recovery patterns compared to those relying primarily on macroeconomic stabilization. The study's policy implications emphasize the necessity of holistic resilience strategies integrating simultaneous institutional reforms, human capital investments, infrastructure development, and economic diversification. The ERI provides operational diagnostic tools for governments and international organizations, enabling regular progress monitoring and priority intervention area identification. Beyond practical utility, this research opens new perspectives for measuring and analyzing economic resilience in development contexts, contributing modestly but significantly to addressing crucial continental development challenges posed by climate change, geopolitical instabilities, and technological transformations.

Keywords: Capacités d’adaptation; Indice composite; Afrique; Gouvernance; Résilience économique (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-09-28
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara and nep-fle
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05290728v1
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Published in repères et perspectives économiques , 2025, 9 (2), pp.80-100. ⟨10.34874/PRSM.RPE.57902⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05290728

DOI: 10.34874/PRSM.RPE.57902

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