The Emergence and Consolidation of Microsimulation Methods in France

L’émergence et la consolidation des méthodes de microsimulation en France

François Legendre ()
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François Legendre: UPE - Université Paris-Est

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Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to trace the gradual emergence of microsimulation models dedicated to the analysis of tax and social security policies in France since the mid- 1960s, as well as their subsequent consolidation since the mid-2000s. A brief outline of these models is given using the static/dynamic distinction. A connection is made between the construc- tion of the Mir model (standing for Modèle de l'impôt sur le revenu, an income tax model) and the development of the survey Revenus fiscaux. Then we distinguish two periods: An initial period that saw a proliferation of such models and a second period, of standardisation, during which the Ines model has acquired a central position. Besides ongoing evaluations (of minimum income and pension schemes, insurance for long-term care), the most recent expectations in this area relate to the ex ante evaluation of measures designed to accelerate the ecological transition and of universal income-type schemes. Finally, we underline that the recent replacement of all the periodic declarations made by employers to various administrations by a unique declaration (the Déclaration sociale nominative, or DSN) significantly renews the range of administrative sources capable of feeding into these models.

Keywords: social minima; long-term care; ageing; pensions; family policies; economic analysis of social policies; public policy evaluation; dépendance; vieillissement; retraites; politiques familiales; minima sociaux; analyse économique des politiques sociales; évaluation des politiques publiques; microsimulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://insee.hal.science/hal-05304467v1
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Published in Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, 2019, 510-511-512, pp.201-217. ⟨10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1997⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05304467

DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1997

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