COLLAPSE THROUGH CONTRADICTED RESILIENCE: Political Instability, Human Capital and Economic Growth in Mali and the Sahel

EFFONDREMENT PAR RÉSILIENCE CONTRARIÉE: Instabilité politique, capital humain et croissance économique au Mali et dans le Sahel

Étienne Fakaba Sissoko ()
Additional contact information
Étienne Fakaba Sissoko: Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako, CRAPES MALI - Centre de Recherche et d'Analyses Politiques, Economiques et Sociales du Mali, Faculté des Sciences économiques et de Gestion - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: This article examines the relationship between human capital, political instability, and economic growth in Mali (2000–2023), with comparative evidence from Burkina Faso, Niger, and Senegal. The methodology relies on ARDL, VECM, and panel ARDL/PMG models, supported by stationarity tests (ADF, PP), robustness diagnostics, and bootstrap impulse responses. The main contribution lies in the construction of a Contradicted Resilience Index (CRI), which combines external dependence (FDI, aid), institutional fragility, and weak productive diversification. The results show that health spending has a positive but conditional effect, education yields ambiguous returns in unstable contexts, and instability acts as a structural barrier to growth. Extractive FDI sustains short-term resilience without fostering structural transformation, while Senegal, with greater stability, succeeds in better valorizing its human capital. Finally, the CRI magnifies the impact of political shocks on growth, providing empirical validation of the hypothesis of "collapse through contradicted resilience." JEL Codes: O11; O15; O43; C32; H52.

Keywords: human capital; political instability; economic growth; contradicted resilience; Sahel. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published in REVUE BELGE, 2025, 11 (129), pp.88-139. ⟨10.5281/zenodo.17282370⟩

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05305758

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17282370

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().