Analyzing the long-term interest of agroforestry in the context of uncertainties

Arnaud Dragicevic () and Jean-Philippe Terreaux ()
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Arnaud Dragicevic: CIRANO - Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations [Montréal, Canada] = Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis on Organizations [Montréal, Canada]
Jean-Philippe Terreaux: UR ETTIS - Environnement, territoires en transition, infrastructures, sociétés - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

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Abstract: Agroforestry has been promoted as a sustainable land-use practice that combines trees and crops to optimize productivity and enhance ecosystem services. However, its long-term benefits are subject to uncertainties. This paper examines the conditions under which agroforestry remains competitive compared to conventional agriculture and forestry, highlighting how the integration of agroforestry can also limit adaptability in the face of environmental and economic change. Using a dynamic model, we explore the trade-offs between agroforestry and conventional land-use specialization, incorporating the concept of quasi-option value to underscore the importance of maintaining flexibility in decision-making under uncertainty. Our analysis of a hypothetical farm offers a framework for evaluating strategic choices under uncertainty across context-dependent agronomic and market conditions, providing a transparent assessment of when agroforestry is competitive and when it is not. Beyond sensitivity exploration, we provide a calibration-and-validation template with explicit data inputs so that practitioners can instantiate the model on specific farms or regions and assess whether agroforestry is adoption-worthy under their local conditions.

Keywords: Agroforestry; Uncertainty; Quasi-option value; Sustainable agriculture; Land (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01
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Published in Journal of Rural Studies, 2026, 121, ⟨10.1016/j.jrurstud.2025.103952⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05381604

DOI: 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2025.103952

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