Compounds and Raiders: A Strategic Model of Self-Protection in the End Times

Laurent Gauthier ()
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Laurent Gauthier: CAC-IXXI, Complex Systems Institute, ESPRI - Espace, Pratiques sociales et Images dans les mondes Grec et Romain - ArScAn - Archéologies et Sciences de l'Antiquité - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP8 - Université Paris 8 - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - MCC - Ministère de la Culture et de la Communication - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: This paper examines the rationality of elite bunker-building as a response to anticipated societal collapse. Indeed, the phenomenon of "prepping" for "the Event" can be framed as self-insurance and relies on a transactional view of humanity, if one is to ensure the control of a compound and fight off potential assailants. We draw on economic decision modeling to analyze how the necessity of internal control by the leader, resentment or the perception of potential loot by outsiders interact with fortification strategies. We introduce a "Machiavelli index" to represent hostility and show that excessive investment in defense can be counterproductive and provoke attack. Maximum bunkerization may not be optimal compared to a degree of cooperation, redistribution, and efforts to reduce perceived inequality. Survival in the end times may depend less on walls and more on legitimacy, reciprocity, and strategic restraint.

Keywords: Societal collapse; Self-insurance; Strategic deterrence; Conflict modeling; Bunker building (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12-25
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Published in Risk Analysis, 2025, ⟨10.1111/risa.70165⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05399294

DOI: 10.1111/risa.70165

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