Impact of Pole Motion on CO 2 Emissions Through Global Warming

Mihai Mutascu ()
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Mihai Mutascu: LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne

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Abstract: This paper investigates the global influence of Earth's pole motion on CO 2 emissions through global warming. Empirical evidence is provided using cointegration techniques and the Vector Error‐Correction estimator, covering 1962–2022. Additionally, panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag models are utilised, incorporating data from 1990 to 2020 across 144 countries to bolster the findings. The first set of results evidences that Earth's pole motion positively influences global warming dynamics in the short‐term, particularly in the X coordinate, on global warming dynamics. Further, the pole motion shock can be indirectly transmitted to CO 2 emissions, with global warming mediating. EKC effect and renewable energy are also considered. The second set of findings refers to the influence of global warming on CO 2 emissions. Herein, global warming reduces CO 2 emissions in the short‐term, especially during sinusoidal periods of pole motion. In contrast, long‐term trends show a positive relationship between global warming and CO 2 emissions, highlighting ecosystem modifications like sea‐level rise and the non‐linear relationship between economic growth and emissions. Moreover, the study identifies indirect pathways linking Earth's pole motion, global warming, and CO 2 emissions, underscoring the role of factors like the Coriolis Effect and pole motion in influencing ecosystem responses across hemispheres. In summary, the pole motion shock boosts global warming in the short term, mitigating CO 2 emissions, but has an expansive emissions tendency in the long term. The policy implications primarily involve adaptive frameworks to address dynamic geo‐environmental conditions, the development of renewable energy to reduce dependence on fossil fuels by fostering a low‐carbon economy through innovation and cost reduction, long‐term climate resilience measures, and the implementation of effective monitoring systems to track pole motion and CO 2 emissions.

Date: 2025-03-02
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Published in Geological Journal, 2025, 60 (11), pp.2714-2739. ⟨10.1002/gj.5170⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05408956

DOI: 10.1002/gj.5170

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