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Has the CDS market influenced the borrowing cost of European countries during the sovereign crisis?

Anne-Laure Delatte (), Mathieu Gex () and Antonia López-Villavicencio ()
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Anne-Laure Delatte: Rouen Business School
Mathieu Gex: Banque de France, UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes
Antonia López-Villavicencio: CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord

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Abstract: This paper assesses the potential inuence of the growing CDS market on the borrowing cost of sovereign states during the European sovereign crisis. We analyze the sovereign debt market to ascertain the pattern of information transmission between the CDS and corresponding bond markets. Our methodological innovation is the use of a non-linear specication rather than the linear VECM specication customarily employed. Using a panel smooth transition model during 2008-2010 period, we nd that: 1) linearity tests clearly reject the null hypothesis of a linear transmission mechanisms between the bond and the CDS markets; 2) market distress alters the mutual inuence and 3) the higher the distress the more the CDS market dominates the information transmission between CDS and bond markets.

Keywords: European sovereign crisis; panel smooth transition models; cointegration; Sovereign credit default swaps (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-10-25
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05455750v1
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Published in Journal of International Money and Finance, 2011, 31 (3), pp.481-497. ⟨10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.10.008⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05455750

DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.10.008

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