Effects of terrorism and regional integration on bilateral trade in West African countries

Effets du terrorisme et de l'intégration régionale sur le commerce bilatéral des pays de l'Afrique de l'Ouest

Palakiyem Kpemoua ()
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Palakiyem Kpemoua: MPDC - Ministère de la planification du développement et de la coopération

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Abstract: This study analyzes the conflicting effects of terrorism and regional integration on bilateral trade within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) over the period 1975–2019. Using an augmented structural gravity model and the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimator with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects (PPMLHDFE), we robustly identify the impact of insecurity. The results indicate that while regional integration significantly boosts intra-regional trade, terrorism acts as a severe impediment. Crucially, the analysis reveals that the negative impact of terrorism is heterogeneous: sharing a common border exacerbates the trade-reducing effect of insecurity, turning geographical proximity into a vulnerability rather than an advantage.

Keywords: Terrorism; Regional Integration; Gravity Model; PPMLHDFE; West Africa; Terrorisme Intégration régionale Modèle de gravité PPMLHDFE Afrique de Terrorism Regional Integration Gravity Model PPMLHDFE West Africa Modeling & (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01-08
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05470982v1
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Published in Modélisation et analyse économique, inPress, 1 (1)

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