Infectious disease and endogenous cycles: Lockdown hits two birds with one stone

David Desmarchelier, Magali Jaoul-Grammare (), Guillaume Morel and Thi Kim Cuong Pham ()
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David Desmarchelier: BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Magali Jaoul-Grammare: UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg, BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Guillaume Morel: Umeå University = Umeå Universitet
Thi Kim Cuong Pham: EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International

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Abstract: Abstract This paper develops a competitive Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans framework in which an infectious disease is considered. A lockdown is introduced to control the disease spread. Considering the dynamics, a stable limit cycle can emerge near the endemic steady‐state, through a Hopf bifurcation, when the share of infectives increases sufficiently the marginal utility of consumption. Particularly, we prove that it is possible to tune the lockdown to simultaneously obtain the limit cycle disappearance and the disease eradication (Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation). In this sense, the lockdown allows hitting two birds with one stone .

Date: 2025-07-29
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Published in International Journal of Economic Theory, 2025, 21 (3), pp.316-342. ⟨10.1111/ijet.70001⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05474231

DOI: 10.1111/ijet.70001

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