Logistics under Fire: Russia’s Supply Chain Response to Western Sanctions

Gilles Paché
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Gilles Paché: CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon

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Abstract: Russia's response to sweeping Western sanctions since the invasion of Ukraine illustrates how logistical constraints can be transformed into instruments of geopolitical power. Sanctions have reshaped the corridors, hubs, and alternative networks mobilized by Moscow to maintain the continuity of strategic flows despite increasing isolation. Routes through Central Asia, expanding hubs in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, as well as the Arctic Northern Sea Route, operate as vectors of State resilience, enabling the circumvention of external pressure while reinforcing territorial and political ambitions. In parallel, gray markets, informal intermediaries, and an expanding "shadow fleet" sustain energy exports and industrial activity, yet generate structural vulnerabilities linked to opacity, safety risks, and dependence on opportunistic actors. This dynamic raises a core research question: how do Western sanctions reconfigure Russia's logistics architecture, and to what extent do adaptive mechanisms-across formal, informal, and illicit channels-produce both resilience and systemic fragility within global supply chains? The article contends that Russia's adjustments do not merely mitigate the effects of sanctions but actively reshape global trade patterns. By combining established corridors with shadow networks, Moscow secures short-term autonomy while accumulating long-term risks, demonstrating that logistics has become a central arena of contemporary geopolitical competition.

Keywords: geopolitics; gray markets; logistics; resilience; Russia; sanctions; shadow fleet; supply chains (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis
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Published in International Affairs and Global Strategy, 2026, 103, pp.1-14

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