Econometric Analysis of the Macroeconomic Determinants of the Informal Economy in Morocco over the Period 1993-2020

Analyse économétrique des déterminants macroéconomiques de l'économie informelle au Maroc sur la période 1993–2020

Benider Elmehdi () and Asmae Benthami
Additional contact information
Benider Elmehdi: Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales, Salé
Asmae Benthami: Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales, Salé

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: The persistence of the informal economy poses a structural challenge for developing economies, both in terms of its scale and its implications for growth, employment, and government tax revenues. Although widely documented, understanding of its macroeconomic drivers remains incomplete, particularly with regard to the nature of the dynamic relationships between the informal economy and its explanatory factors. In this perspective, the adoption of econometric approaches capable of simultaneously capturing interdependencies and adjustment mechanisms is particularly relevant. Using macroeconomic data on Morocco covering the period 1993–2020, this study employs an ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model to examine the interactions between the informal economyand its main determinants. The objective is to provide empirical insights that can enrich the academic debate and inform the discussion on formalization policies adapted to Morocco's economic realities. This work contributes to the literature by emphasizing the importance of identifying the determinants of the informal economy as a prerequisite for any formalization strategy.

Keywords: ARDL model.; tax revenues; employment; economic growth; croissance économique; Economie informelle; G20; modèle ARDL.; recettes fiscales; emploi (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-02-19
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara and nep-iue
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05517999v1
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published in International Journal of Accounting, Finance, Auditing, Management and Economics, A paraître, 7 (3), pp.23-40. ⟨10.5281/zenodo.18644531⟩

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal.science/hal-05517999v1/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05517999

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18644531

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().