An economic forecast for country medals at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games

La prévision économique des médailles par nation aux jeux olympiques de paris 2024

Wladimir Andreff (), Nicolas Scelles (), Liliane Bonnal (), Madeleine Andreff () and Pascal Favard ()
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Wladimir Andreff: UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
Nicolas Scelles: MMU - Manchester Metropolitan University
Liliane Bonnal: LéP [Poitiers] - Laboratoire d'économie de Poitiers [UR 13822] - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers
Madeleine Andreff: OEP - Organisation et Efficacité de Production - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12
Pascal Favard: IRJI - Institut de Recherche Juridique Interdisciplinaire - UT - Université de Tours

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Abstract: The sporting performance assigned to France's national team for the 2024 Olympics is compared to the forecasts of a macro-econometric model that identified 95% of sporting outcomes at the Tokyo Games. The country variables are: population, GDP/inhabitant, the number of athletes per team, the number of medals won (net of disqualifications for doping) at the previous Olympics, and dummies standing for the host country effect, the political regime, sport specialization, the country hosting the next Games, and another dummy for having hosted the previous Olympics. All Tobit and Hurdle estimations forecast the same four major medal winners with the same ranking: the teams from the US, China, Russia and Great Britain. France's national squad would win 47/48 medals (extreme margins of the confidence intervals: 43 and 60), which would rank it either 5th or 6th in medal totals.

Keywords: economic forecasting; Olympic games; sports performance; Jeux olympiques; performance sportive; prévision économique (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-07-26
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2024, N° 185 (2), pp.13-56. ⟨10.3917/reof.185.0013⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05552308

DOI: 10.3917/reof.185.0013

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