Weather shocks and exports: evidence from the El Niño Southern Oscillation

Raphaël Chiappini
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Raphaël Chiappini: BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement

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Abstract: This study explores the impact of El Niño weather shocks on the exports of eight South American countries from January 1984 to December 2022. The findings reveal that strong El Niño events result in an immediate and significant reduction in exports, whereas strong La Niña events do not exhibit a significant short-term impact. The negative effects of El Niño are heterogeneous, with pronounced implications for countries specializing in the agricultural sector.

Keywords: Local projections; Exports; Emerging markets; Weather shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-03-20
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Published in Applied Economics Letters, 2026, pp.1-5. ⟨10.1080/13504851.2026.2648000⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05562790

DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2026.2648000

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